【導(dǎo)讀】全球固定收益投資巨頭品浩：市場預(yù)期美聯(lián)儲今年降息四次
PIMCO, a Leading Global Bond Investor, Says Markets Expect 4 Fed Rate Cuts This Year品浩（PIMCO）執(zhí)行副總裁兼資產(chǎn)配置及多元實質(zhì)資產(chǎn)投資組合經(jīng)理盛宜銘（Emmanuel Sharef）日前接受本報獨家采訪時表示，中國債券在全球組合中可很好地起到分散風(fēng)險作用。他認(rèn)為美聯(lián)儲降息利好大型科技股，盡管這些科技股的估值偏高。市場認(rèn)為今年美聯(lián)儲可能降息四次。品浩是全球領(lǐng)先的固定收益投資巨頭之一。截至2024年6月30日，總部位于美國加州新港灘的這家基金管理公司管理著1.88萬億美元的資產(chǎn)。他們在中國運(yùn)營合格境內(nèi)有限合伙人（QDLP）業(yè)務(wù)，可從中國投資者處籌集資金進(jìn)行海外投資。In an exclusive interview with China Fund News, Emmanuel S. Sharef, Executive Vice President and Portfolio Manager of Asset Allocation and Multi Real Asset at PIMCO, one of the world’s leading fixed income investors, affirmed that Chinese bonds continue to serve as effective diversification tools within global portfolio. Sharef believes the Federal Reserve’s anticipated interest rate cuts will benefit large technology companies, despite their elevated valuations. He further added that the Fed is likely to reduce rates by four times this year. PIMCO, headquartered in Newport Beach, California, manages 1.88 trillion in assets under management as of June 30, 2024. The firm operates a Qualified Domestic Limited Partnership (QDLP) business in China, enabling them to raise capital from Chinese investors for overseas investments.市場預(yù)期美聯(lián)儲9月降息25個基點或者50個基點中國基金報: 美聯(lián)儲主席鮑威爾在杰克遜·霍爾會議講話中表示，前進(jìn)的方向已經(jīng)很明確。這聽起來是給出了明確信號。所以，美聯(lián)儲9月份降息25個基點是市場共識嗎?盛宜銘: 市場預(yù)期美聯(lián)儲9月降息25個基點或者50個基點，全年可能會有100個基點左右的降息。市場共識預(yù)測的降息幅度比美聯(lián)儲預(yù)期得更大。我認(rèn)為這在某種程度上是有道理的，因為美聯(lián)儲眼中不同結(jié)果之間的動態(tài)平衡已經(jīng)改變。人們對利率上行的擔(dān)憂減少了，利率可能低于基本情景是市場擔(dān)心的地方。不對稱性已經(jīng)有所轉(zhuǎn)變。我們的觀點與之一致。鮑威爾指出，目前，美聯(lián)儲擔(dān)心的不是通脹卷土重來，而是勞動力市場。其他發(fā)言人也指出，如果勞動力市場的放緩速度快于預(yù)期，美聯(lián)儲可能需要降息50個基點。以上就是美聯(lián)儲前進(jìn)的方向。這為資產(chǎn)投資者創(chuàng)造了機(jī)會。目前的股債相關(guān)性是負(fù)的，它提高了債券的有效性。在所有投資組合中，我們都強(qiáng)調(diào)這一點。The Market is Pricing in One or Two Cuts in SeptemberChina Fund News: Chair Powell said in his Jackson Hole speech that the direction of travel is clear. It sounds like a clear signal to the market. So, 25 basis points cut for September? Is that the market consensus?Sharef: The market is pricing in maybe 1 or 2 cuts in September, and about four cuts or so for the year. The market consensus is for more cuts than what the Fed is tracking. I think that makes sense to some extent, given the fact that the directional outcome has changed. There's less worry about interest rate upside and more concerns about the possibility of rates going lower than the base case scenario. The asymmetry has shifted a little bit. That aligns with our view. Powell has noted that the concern is not so much about inflation resurgence, but about watching the labor market. A number of other Fed speakers have pointed out that if the labor market decelerates more quickly than anticipated, maybe a 50-basis-point cut would be appropriate. And so that's the direction the Fed is heading at this point of time.This creates a lot of opportunities for asset investors. We now have negative stock-bond correlation.It raises the effectiveness of bonds, which we've argued for across all of our portfolios.中國基金報：大多數(shù)分析師預(yù)計美聯(lián)儲這次將成功實現(xiàn)軟著陸。為什么市場預(yù)測今年會有較為激進(jìn)的降息?盛宜銘：軟著陸與美國聯(lián)邦基金利率回到中性水平兩者之間并不矛盾。我認(rèn)為包括鮑威爾主席在內(nèi)的大多數(shù)觀察人士都認(rèn)為，目前的貨幣政策是收縮性的。分歧在于，收縮性的貨幣政策應(yīng)維持多長時間。市場及經(jīng)濟(jì)趨向正常化、通脹壓力減弱，這個時候回到中性的利率水平是合適的，問題在于以多快的速度回到那個水平。今年剩余時間，無論是三次還是四次降息，最終都會從市場預(yù)測到2025年為止的總降息次數(shù)中扣除?？紤]到當(dāng)前的利率水平仍具有很強(qiáng)的收縮效應(yīng)，市場對累計降息幅度的預(yù)測，與長期以來利率水平將回歸中性這一事實一致。市場目前定價了四次降息。美聯(lián)儲主張在更正常化的環(huán)境下降息三次。我們認(rèn)為市場定價是各種情景的加權(quán)平均值。一種情景是三次降息，另一種情景是如果經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩速度快于預(yù)期，今年有四到五次降息。市場根據(jù)這些結(jié)果的概率分布，對各種情景進(jìn)行加權(quán)平均。市場沒有考慮的是比目前預(yù)期更少的降息，甚至加息，這是我們前一段時間所擔(dān)心的。值得注意的是，市場在預(yù)判聯(lián)邦基金利率的路徑上出過很多次錯。今年初，市場預(yù)期數(shù)次降息，然后有一段時間又預(yù)期不會降息，現(xiàn)在則重新預(yù)期四次降息。市場對降息的預(yù)判反反復(fù)復(fù)，到目前為止，在降息方向和次數(shù)上唯一預(yù)判正確的是美聯(lián)儲。
China Fund News: Most analysts anticipate the Fed will engineer a soft-ish landing this time, why do the markets forecast aggressive cuts this year?Sharef: A soft landing would be consistent with getting back to a neutral level of the funds rate. Most observers, including Chair Powell, agree that monetary policy at this point is restrictive. They've been arguing that monetary policy is restrictive for some time, and about how long to maintain restrictive monetary policy. To the extent that the market and economy is normalizing with inflationary pressures decreasing, it is appropriate to return to a more neutral level of the funds rate. The question then becomes how quickly to return to that level.
I think whether you price in three or four cuts for the rest of the year, that just ends up taking out of the number of cuts that get priced into 2025. So, I think the cumulative level is still consistent with a return to the long run neutral level, given how restrictive it is.The market is pricing in four cuts. The Fed is arguing for about three cuts in a more normalized environment. We think about the market pricing as a weighted average between various scenarios. One scenario is that you get three cuts, and another scenario is that you get four to five cuts this year if things start to slow down more rapidly than anticipated. The market ends up weighted-averaging those various scenarios based on the probability of those outcomes.One thing that isn't really being weighted in the market is a scenario where you get fewer cuts, or a scenario where you get hikes, which was a worry that we had some time ago. The market has been wrong quite a lot about the path of the Fed funds rate. Remember, at the beginning of this year, the market was pricing in several cuts, then for a while it was pricing in zero cuts, and now it's pricing in four cuts again. So far, the only ones that have been right about the direction and the number of cuts have been the Fed.中國基金報：去年，商業(yè)地產(chǎn)是美國的一個風(fēng)險來源。你認(rèn)為這種風(fēng)險緩解了嗎?盛宜銘：高利率環(huán)境和普遍緊縮的經(jīng)濟(jì)和信貸環(huán)境下，商業(yè)地產(chǎn)借款人在債務(wù)到期時可能難以再融資，甚至難以進(jìn)行債務(wù)展期。對于很多貸款人和借款人來說可能是這樣的。他們要么找到延長債務(wù)期限和重組債務(wù)的方法，要么在某些情況下轉(zhuǎn)向私人市場尋求機(jī)會。在公開市場之外進(jìn)行重組，有時被迫接受更苛刻的條款。通脹得到控制以及美國開始回歸低利率環(huán)境，這對商業(yè)地產(chǎn)有所幫助。這降低了商業(yè)地產(chǎn)的風(fēng)險，再融資不再是一個大問題。話雖如此，商業(yè)地產(chǎn)領(lǐng)域仍然存在相當(dāng)多的風(fēng)險，存在結(jié)構(gòu)性問題，因為不是每個人都會回到辦公室和購物中心。相反，部分商業(yè)地產(chǎn)，例如公寓的需求很高。美國仍然有很大的住房需求。也就是說，商業(yè)地產(chǎn)不是鐵板一塊。China Fund News: Last year,commercial real estate was a source of risk in the United States. Do you think that risk is alleviated?Sharef: In a high interest rate environment and a generally tight economic and credit environment, it could potentially be difficult for commercial real estate borrowers to refinance their debt as it matures, or even roll over their debt. That would be the case for a good number of lenders and borrowers. They have to either find ways of extending their debts and restructuring their obligations, or in some cases, go to private markets to seek opportunities, effectively restructuring outside of public markets using sometimes more difficult terms.The fact that inflation was contained and that we've started to return to a lower rate environment helps. That's effectively what all these restructuring attempts were hoping for. This reduced the risk in commercial real estate to some extent because that refinancing wall is not as much of a problem anymore.That said, there are still quite a lot of risks across commercial real estate sectors. There are structurally problematic sectors, including office, because not everybody's returning to the office and malls. Conversely, there are sectors of commercial real estate, like apartments, that are in high demand. There's still a lot of need for housing in the United States. The commercial real estate is not just one unified block, of course.盛宜銘：這取決于雇員和雇主的議價能力。目前，勞動力市場仍然相對緊張，同時雇員擁有相當(dāng)大的談判能力。不少人更想在家工作或者靈活辦公。因此，在這種環(huán)境下，在家工作和靈活安排（每周在家工作一到兩天）仍然相對普遍。當(dāng)我們進(jìn)入一個勞動力市場疲軟、勞動力供給增加、勞動力需求可能略有下降的環(huán)境時，勞動力需要變得更具有服從性，那時談判的平衡和權(quán)力的平衡就會向企業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移。你可能會看到更多的人在辦公室工作，而在家工作的人會減少。所以這真的只是由勞動者的議價能力決定的。China Fund News: Do you think people will return to the office eventually? Sharef: It’s a function of the power of labor. Currently, the labor market is still relatively tight with a fair amount of negotiating power, and there is a desire for individuals to work from home or have a certain amount of flexibility. So in this environment, working from home and flexible arrangements where you work one or two days from home are still relatively common.I think if we get into an environment where the labor market eases, when there's more labor supply and less demand, and more need for labor to become accommodative, the balance of negotiations and power would shift towards corporations. You would probably see more people working from the office and less working from home. So it's really just a function of that.中國基金報: 在前一段時間非常動蕩的一周后，我們看到資本重新流向日本。全球投資者是不是慶祝得太早了?盛宜銘： 日本經(jīng)濟(jì)名義增長和通脹均轉(zhuǎn)正，這代表經(jīng)濟(jì)活力的復(fù)蘇。隨著時間的推移，企業(yè)已經(jīng)通過公司治理改革改善了資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表。日本央行也在努力實現(xiàn)軟著陸。美聯(lián)儲和日本央行的主要區(qū)別在于，日本央行是從底部出發(fā)（就利率水平而言），而美聯(lián)儲是試圖從頂部著陸。
日本政策利率的小幅上調(diào)不應(yīng)該產(chǎn)生如此大的影響。我認(rèn)為投資者基本認(rèn)同這一點，這就是反彈的原因。從這個角度來看，也可以說日本銀行的加息和相應(yīng)的指引是成功的。因為他們能夠通過加息，在一定程度上調(diào)整貨幣的匯率水平，并降低消費者的成本，日本目前的經(jīng)濟(jì)實力依然強(qiáng)勁。
Bank of Japan (BOJ) is trying to engineer a soft landing as well
China Fund News: After a very tumultuous week, we see capital flow back to Japan. Do you think global investors celebrated prematurely?
Sharef: Japan is currently seeing positive nominal growth and positive inflation, or a resurgence of economic dynamism. Companies have also improved their balance sheets as a function of corporate governance reform over time. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has been trying to navigate a soft landing as well. The main difference between the Fed and the BOJ is the BOJ is coming from the bottom (in terms of interest rates) and the Fed is trying to land from the top.A slight hike in the Japanese policy rate should not have as big an impact as it did in the market. And I think investors generally agree, which is why you are seeing the rebound. From that perspective, you could argue that the hike and the corresponding guidance that the BOJ provided was successful because they were able to produce a hike, adjusting the currency to some extent, and reducing the cost for consumers. I think economic strength will remain in Japan at this point in time.中國基金報：我們應(yīng)該關(guān)注日本的哪些經(jīng)濟(jì)指標(biāo)?盛宜銘：常見的指標(biāo)包括通脹、消費增長和消費者行為，因為這些指標(biāo)受貨幣變化影響最大。China Fund News: What economic indicators should we watch in Japan?Sharef: The usual ones: inflation but also consumption growth and consumer behavior because these indicators will be most impacted by changes in the currency as well.中國基金報：與以前相比，中國債券在組合中扮演的分散風(fēng)險角色是否有變化？盛宜銘：是的。過去我們沒有看到中國人民銀行和美聯(lián)儲之間有太多的相關(guān)性，我們也不會看到中國和美國啟動完全同步的降息周期。基于多元化考慮，配置中國債券是有道理的。我從量化的角度思考這個問題。我關(guān)注歷史相關(guān)性矩陣，并相應(yīng)地優(yōu)化投資組合。投資者有理由配置中國國債，這是基于多元化和相應(yīng)的可得的機(jī)會做出的考量。Chinese Bond Market: A Robust Diversification ToolChina Fund News: Does the diversification appeal of Chinese bonds still hold true in today's market?Sharef: We haven't seen that much correlation between People's Bank of China (PBoC) and the Fed, and we're not going to see a synchronized cutting cycle between China and the Fed. So there is a certain diversification argument that still makes sense. I think of this from a quant-type perspective, where I look at the historical correlation matrices and optimize my portfolio accordingly. So this gives you reasons to allocate to Chinese government bonds. It's just based on diversification and the corresponding opportunity set.中國基金報：考慮到美聯(lián)儲即將降息，現(xiàn)在是時候關(guān)注標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)中“七雄”之外的股票了么?盛宜銘：如果我們回顧過去美聯(lián)儲降息和降息周期的歷史，通常在這段時期，股票指數(shù)表現(xiàn)相對較好。降息周期通常也與后周期重疊，因此在這些時期表現(xiàn)最好的股票往往是那些高質(zhì)量、資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表相對強(qiáng)勁的股票，主要是大盤股。降低利率會降低貼現(xiàn)率，這有利于長期投資項目，包括一些更具投機(jī)性的科技類項目，也有利于人工智能資本支出。因此，很難說當(dāng)前的經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境偏愛小盤價值股。當(dāng)談?wù)摌?biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)減去七大股票時，人們所指的通常是小盤價值股。但我認(rèn)為，當(dāng)我們考慮標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)去除七大股票之外的部分時，我們應(yīng)該注意到，從融資和借貸的角度來看，它們也會因低利率而獲益。它們的人工智能資本支出也會得到相應(yīng)的回報。此外，更廣泛的經(jīng)濟(jì)生產(chǎn)率的影響也會影響這些公司。但是，如果只看因子的歷史表現(xiàn)，大盤科技股通常仍然傾向于率先繼續(xù)跑贏。盡管如此，每個周期在其他方面都完全不同。我們已經(jīng)看到人工智能相關(guān)股票和七大股票出現(xiàn)了相當(dāng)大的反彈，所以起點可能與我們過去看到的有點不同。China Fund News: Given the Fed cuts on the horizon, do you think it's time for the S&P 500 minus the Magnificent Seven stocks? Sharef: If we look at history around past Fed cuts and the starts of the cutting cycles, equities typically perform relatively well during that period as a broad index. But those cutting cycles are generally also associated with late-cycle behavior, so the best performing equities during those periods tend to be those that have high quality, often relatively strong balance sheets, sometimes mostly large caps. Fundamentally, cutting interest rates also reduces your discount rates. And so that favors longer-term investment projects, including some more speculative tech-type projects. And that also favors, for example, AI CapEx.So, it's hard to necessarily argue that the environment favors small-cap value at that point. Small-cap value usually refers to the S&P 500 minus the Magnificent Seven, not necessarily the Russell. But I think the way to think about the S&P 500 minus the Magnificent Seven is partially that to the extent that they are also more dependent on financing and borrowing rates, they would do a little bit better with lower rates. Their AI CapEx would pay off also, and eventually, the broader productivity impact on the broader economy would benefit those companies as well.But just looking at the historical behavior of these factors, large-cap tech would generally still tend to be the first to continue to outperform. That said, every cycle has been totally different in every other way. We've already had a pretty significant rally in the AI-related names and Magnificent Seven. So the starting point is maybe a little bit different from what we've seen in the past. 中國基金報：投資者情緒怎么樣？投資者對大型科技股的情緒是否有所減弱?盛宜銘：我認(rèn)為估值并沒有膨脹太多，主要是因為當(dāng)你看這些股票的市盈率和相應(yīng)的盈利預(yù)測時，它們的盈利一直很強(qiáng)勁，而且一直在增長。上個月投資者情緒有一點轉(zhuǎn)變, 但這些股票中的大多數(shù)在一定程度上恢復(fù)了。China Fund News: What about investor sentiment? Do you think it has weakened a bit for those large tech names?Sharef: I think valuations have not deteriorated all that much, mainly because when you look at PE ratios and the corresponding earnings forecasts for these names, their earnings have been quite strong and growing throughout.I think there was a bit of a shift in investor sentiment last month, but most of these names have recovered to some extent.中國基金報：我想了解你對中國股市的看法。現(xiàn)在是時候在中國市場（在岸或離岸）增加倉位了嗎? 盛宜銘：中國股市有一些機(jī)會，我們通過綜合的研究框架發(fā)現(xiàn)了這些機(jī)會。并不一定說，指數(shù)整體變得比過去便宜特別多。當(dāng)我查看PIMCO基于復(fù)合框架的系統(tǒng)策略組合時，它們對中國股票略有超配，體現(xiàn)在與科技和通信服務(wù)相關(guān)的股票上面。這些公司具有廣泛的吸引力，不那么依賴經(jīng)濟(jì)周期。China Fund News: I want to get your view on Chinese equities. Do you think it's time to accumulate positions in the Chinese market, onshore or offshore?Sharef: While there are some opportunities in the Chinese equity market when we look through this multi-factor framework, it's not necessarily the case that the index as a whole has become that much cheaper. When I look at the holdings and our systematic strategies that are based on these types of factor investments, they do end up with a slight overweight to Chinese equities, but very specific names related to technology and communication services that have more broad-based appeal and are not necessarily as cyclically dependent.
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